Pakistan Aviation Fuel Crisis: Foreign Airlines Restricted from Refueling as Jet Fuel Prices Surge 150%

Pakistan's aviation sector has been thrown into severe turmoil as the country grapples with a crippling jet fuel shortage driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The crisis has prompted the Pakistan Airports Authority (PAA) to issue an unprecedented directive restricting foreign airlines from refueling on Pakistani soil, while domestic carriers face record-breaking fuel costs that threaten the viability of the entire industry.

On March 13, 2026, the PAA issued a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) instructing all international carriers to carry maximum fuel from their departure airports and to minimize their uplift of Jet A-1 fuel within Pakistan. The directive initially targeted Jinnah International Airport in Karachi and Allama Iqbal International Airport in Lahore but was subsequently extended to all major Pakistani airports. Under this policy, foreign airlines are expected to arrive with enough fuel for their return journeys, while domestic operators such as Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) continue to receive fuel allocations based on operational requirements. The restriction has been extended until at least April 15, 2026, with strict compliance expected from all international carriers.

The operational consequences of the fuel advisory have been immediate and far-reaching. At least one flight from Karachi to Doha was diverted to Muscat for refueling after the airline was unable to secure adequate fuel in Pakistan. Airlines forced to carry extra fuel on inbound flights have encountered weight limitations, resulting in the offloading of passenger baggage and cargo to meet safety standards. These disruptions have cascaded through the entire supply chain, affecting both passenger services and freight operations.

The scale of flight cancellations has been staggering. Over 1,600 flights departing from Karachi and other Pakistani airports to Gulf destinations and beyond were cancelled within the first 17 days of the crisis. PIA alone cancelled approximately 325 flights, with around 200 of those operated by the national flag carrier itself. In one particularly severe stretch, more than 500 domestic and international flights were grounded within just three days, stranding thousands of passengers. Flights to Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain have been suspended entirely, while services to Saudi Arabia continue to operate on a reduced schedule.

The price of jet fuel in Pakistan has experienced an extraordinary escalation. Since March 1, 2026, the cost of Jet A-1 fuel has surged from approximately 188 Pakistani rupees per litre to a record 476.97 rupees per litre, representing an increase of more than 150% in less than one month. The government raised jet fuel prices five times within 28 days, each time citing volatile global energy markets and the disruption of supply chains linked to the Iran conflict. Kerosene prices have followed a similar trajectory, climbing to 433.40 rupees per litre after a 127% increase since early March.

The financial strain on airlines operating in Pakistan has become critical. Arif Habib, chairman of the consortium that acquired a 75% stake in PIA in December 2025 for approximately 485 million USD, publicly warned that flight operations may no longer be viable at current fuel prices. The consortium had purchased the airline as part of Pakistan's economic reform agenda under a 7 billion USD International Monetary Fund program, with plans to modernize the carrier's depleted fleet of just 18 active aircraft and restore direct routes to London and Paris. Those ambitions are now in serious jeopardy.

PIA has responded by introducing fuel surcharges of 20 USD on domestic routes and up to 100 USD on international flights. Domestic one-way fares on major routes such as Karachi to Islamabad and Karachi to Lahore have reportedly reached up to 40,000 rupees, with last-minute tickets climbing by as much as 150%. International fares have also skyrocketed, with economy class tickets to destinations including the Middle East, Toronto, Paris and Manchester ranging between 300,000 and 700,000 rupees. A ticket from Lahore to Denmark via Turkey was reported at nearly 1 million rupees, compared to a previous price of around 400,000 rupees via Dubai.

The crisis extends well beyond passenger aviation. The Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporters Association has raised alarms over rising air cargo costs, reporting that ground handling companies have imposed an additional charge of 50 rupees per kilogram on shipments. The association warned that fruit and vegetable exports via air routes have already been disrupted, potentially causing significant financial losses for exporters who depend on timely delivery to international markets.

Pilot training institutions are facing existential pressure as well. The cost of aviation gasoline for smaller training aircraft has risen by nearly 80 rupees per litre, pushing training costs up by approximately one million rupees. Industry experts warn that if prices continue to climb, small aircraft operations and pilot training activities could come to a complete halt, creating a long-term skills gap in the Pakistani aviation workforce.

The broader context of the crisis is rooted in Pakistan's extreme dependence on energy imports. The country relies on imports for more than 80% of its oil needs, with total oil imports between July 2025 and February 2026 reaching approximately 10.71 billion USD. Qatar serves as Pakistan's primary supplier of liquefied natural gas, and those cargoes must transit through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been severely disrupted by the ongoing conflict between Iran, the United States and Israel.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif addressed the nation in a televised speech, acknowledging that the entire region is in a state of war and announcing sweeping emergency austerity measures. These include a shift to a four-day workweek for government employees, mandatory remote work for 50% of federal staff on a rotating basis, extended school holidays, a ban on in-person government meetings, and social gathering restrictions capping weddings and events at 200 guests with a single main dish.

Looking ahead, the outlook for Pakistan's aviation sector remains deeply uncertain. The government has indicated that fuel rationing may be considered if the regional conflict continues. The country's finance ministry has acknowledged that the current freeze on petrol and diesel prices cannot be sustained indefinitely, with the government absorbing approximately 175 rupees per litre in diesel costs and 75 rupees per litre in petrol. Meanwhile, the review of two IMF programs has been on hold for more than two weeks, adding further economic uncertainty.

The crisis in Pakistan is also part of a broader global pattern. Jet fuel imports across Europe have fallen to their lowest levels since March 2022, and analysts predict that European airports could face acute fuel shortages by May 2026. The last tanker carrying aviation kerosene from the Persian Gulf is expected to arrive in Rotterdam on April 9, after which European reserves could drop to half of required levels. Airlines including Lufthansa and Ryanair are already preparing contingency plans that could involve grounding aircraft or cancelling up to 25% of scheduled flights.

For Pakistan specifically, the convergence of record fuel prices, foreign airline refueling restrictions, massive flight cancellations and deteriorating export logistics represents one of the most severe disruptions to the country's aviation infrastructure in its history. Without a resolution to the Strait of Hormuz blockade or the development of alternative supply routes, the crisis is expected to deepen through April and May 2026, with potentially devastating consequences for the country's economy, trade relationships and the recently privatized national carrier.