Middle East Conflict Disrupts 18% of Global Air Freight Capacity - March 2026

On February 28, 2026, a joint military operation launched by the United States and Israel against Iran triggered one of the most severe disruptions to global air cargo networks in recent history. Within 48 hours, approximately 18% of worldwide air freight capacity had been removed from the market, according to data published by Dutch aviation consultancy Rotate. The operation, codenamed Epic Fury by the Pentagon and Roaring Lion by the Israeli military, targeted military installations, leadership compounds, and defense infrastructure across multiple Iranian cities including Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, and Kermanshah.

Iran responded with retaliatory missile and drone strikes across the broader Middle East region, hitting targets in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, and Israel. Several major international airports sustained physical damage during the exchanges. Dubai International Airport (DXB), the busiest airport in the world for international passenger traffic and a critical air cargo transshipment hub, was struck by drones on two separate occasions. Terminal 3 was evacuated after the first impact, and four airport staff members were injured. Abu Dhabi Zayed International Airport was also hit, resulting in one fatality and seven injuries. Kuwait International Airport reported strike-related incidents as well.

Airspace across a vast swath of the Middle East was closed almost immediately after hostilities began. Full shutdowns were imposed in Iran, Israel, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and Syria, while Saudi Arabia partially restricted flights near its northern and eastern borders. The closures grounded operations at some of the world's most strategically important aviation hubs. Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha together handle more than 90,000 transit passengers daily on just three airlines: Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways. These same carriers collectively operate tens of thousands of tonnes of cargo capacity per day, with Qatar Airways alone accounting for roughly 12,000 tonnes and Emirates approximately 10,000 tonnes.

The immediate operational fallout was extensive. Emirates SkyCargo suspended all flight operations and placed temporary restrictions on the booking and acceptance of new shipments. Qatar Airways Cargo halted services entirely following the closure of Qatari airspace. Etihad Cargo reported severe disruptions at its Abu Dhabi base and stated that flights would resume only through officially approved safe corridors. All three carriers extended their flight suspensions through at least March 3, 2026, at 10:00 UTC, though the evolving security situation made any firm reopening timeline uncertain.

Beyond the Gulf-based carriers, numerous international airlines also pulled back from the region. Cathay Pacific suspended all Middle Eastern operations including freighter services to Al Maktoum International Airport in Dubai. Air India halted flights to destinations across the Gulf as well as many European and transatlantic routes. Lufthansa cancelled services to multiple Middle Eastern cities. United Airlines suspended departures to Tel Aviv through March 6 and to Dubai through March 4. SWISS halted flights to Dubai through March 4 and to Tel Aviv through March 8, while also avoiding airspace over Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, and Bahrain.

Rotate live capacity monitoring data revealed that Gulf-based carriers account for approximately 13% of global international widebody and freighter capacity. The loss of this lift, combined with the withdrawal of other international carriers from the region, drove the overall 18% week-on-week decline in global capacity. Tim van Leeuwen, Vice President and Head of Consulting at Rotate, identified three primary factors behind the contraction: the complete suspension of flights by Gulf carriers, the inability of other airlines serving the region to quickly redeploy their assets, and the operational constraints imposed on carriers rerouting freighters through alternative technical stops or flying direct with reduced payload.

The disruption was particularly acute on the Asia-to-Europe corridor, one of the world's most heavily trafficked air cargo routes. Data from aviation consultancy Aevean showed that capacity on the Asia-Middle East-Europe corridor fell by 26% over the weekend compared to the prior week. Simultaneously, direct Asia-to-Europe capacity rose by 13 to 14%, as airlines bypassed Gulf stopovers and rerouted through Central Asian airspace. In the fourth quarter of 2025, roughly half of all China and Hong Kong to Europe air cargo capacity relied on en-route stops in the Middle East or Central Asia, illustrating the structural dependency on the region.

India and South Asia were especially hard hit, recording capacity declines exceeding 60% due to the region's heavy reliance on Gulf connectivity for cargo and passenger flows. Air India and Air India Express experienced flight disruptions and diversions, with some aircraft stranded in Doha during the peak of airspace closures. With March marking India's financial year-end, exporters and importers faced significant delays during a critical period for commercial activity.

Longer routing for diverted flights required additional fuel, which in turn reduced cargo payload to remain within aircraft weight limits. Some carriers were forced to add refueling stops that further extended transit times. Industry analysts anticipated that air cargo rates would rise sharply, particularly on Asia-Europe lanes, if the disruptions continued beyond the initial days. Neil Wilson, editor of price reporting agency TAC Index, warned of potentially significant rate movements if large-scale cancellations persisted. However, analysts also noted that Chinese factories were still ramping up production following the Lunar New Year holiday, which temporarily provided some slack in aircraft supply.

The disruption extended well beyond air freight into ocean shipping. Major container lines including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, and CMA CGM suspended services to the region or diverted vessels away from the Strait of Hormuz after Iran announced its closure. CMA CGM introduced an emergency surcharge of 4,000 USD per forty-foot equivalent unit container for services to affected areas. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps also claimed strikes on three oil tankers in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, directly threatening one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints for energy and trade.

The aviation data firm Cirium reported that of 3,779 flights scheduled to operate to the Middle East by global airlines, 1,560 were cancelled, representing 41% of the total. More than 2,800 flights were cancelled on Sunday alone across Middle Eastern airports, with cascading effects at international hubs in London, Mumbai, Delhi, Bangkok, Istanbul, and Paris. Over 20,000 travelers were stranded in UAE airports, while estimates suggested hundreds of thousands more were affected globally. Several governments, including Thailand, began planning repatriation flights for their citizens.

Forwarders and logistics providers scrambled to adjust. Scan Global Logistics warned customers of significant delays for both in-transit and upcoming shipments to, from, and through the Middle East, as well as on the Asia-Europe trade lane. CH Robinson flagged emerging secondary impacts in Southeast Asia, India, and at Chinese hubs, particularly for North America-bound freight being rerouted across the Pacific. The potential conversion of ocean cargo to air freight, should the Strait of Hormuz disruption intensify, threatened to further tighten available capacity and introduce additional rate volatility.

As of March 2, 2026, Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports began limited flight operations with strict safety approvals, though the vast majority of scheduled commercial services remained cancelled. The situation continued to evolve rapidly, with ongoing military exchanges between Iran, Israel, the United States, and regional actors making any return to normal operations highly uncertain. The disruption represented one of the most abrupt realignments of global air cargo networks since the COVID-19 pandemic, with profound implications for supply chain reliability, logistics costs, and international trade flows.