UK Jet Fuel Supply Cut Off - Hormuz Blockade Threatens Aviation Collapse

The United Kingdom is facing a severe jet fuel supply crisis as a direct consequence of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, which began on February 28, 2026. The strait, a critical maritime chokepoint through which approximately 20% of global oil supply normally transits, has seen tanker traffic collapse by 70 to 80% since the start of hostilities.

The UK has the highest dependency on Middle Eastern jet fuel imports in Europe. Over 60% of British jet fuel is sourced from the Middle East, with Kuwait alone providing 38% of total imports at roughly 4.1 million tonnes. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia each contribute more than 1 million tonnes annually. This heavy reliance became especially acute after the UK phased out Russian fuel supplies in the wake of the 2022 Ukraine conflict, leaving the country with few alternative sources at scale.

On March 31, 2026, reports confirmed that the last known UK-bound jet fuel tanker from the Middle East was in transit. The Libyan-flagged vessel Maetiga, loaded with jet fuel from Saudi Arabia, was tracked off the coast of Portugal heading northward toward British waters. No other UK-bound cargoes from the Persian Gulf region were visible on maritime tracking systems, raising alarm among energy analysts and government officials. Industry experts warned that airlines operating in the UK could begin to feel the supply crunch by late April if the Hormuz disruption persists.

London Heathrow, the busiest international airport in Europe, is considered the highest-risk major hub on the continent for jet fuel shortages starting in April. The airport handles approximately 1,300 flights per day and is heavily dependent on a continuous flow of fuel through a dedicated pipeline network connected to coastal refineries. Any interruption in supply would have an immediate and cascading effect on flight operations across the UK and beyond.

Jet fuel prices in Europe have surged dramatically since the start of the crisis. Prices passed the 1,700 USD per tonne mark, more than doubling from the pre-war level of approximately 730 USD per tonne. In Asia, Singapore kerosene traded above 200 USD per barrel. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) issued a warning that European jet fuel security was resting on extremely thin commercial inventory margins, with stockpiles typically covering just over one month of demand.

Multiple European airport hubs informed airlines to prepare for potential emergency fuel exhaustion. Fuel suppliers, who normally provide months of forward guidance, began refusing to guarantee availability beyond a few days. The situation prompted carriers across Europe and beyond to take drastic measures. Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) cancelled over 1,000 flights in April, Air New Zealand cut approximately 1,100 flights affecting 44,000 passengers, and United Airlines announced a 5% reduction in its planned schedule for the year.

The financial pressure on airlines has been extreme. Fuel typically represents around 25% of an airline ticket price, and the doubling of jet fuel costs translates into at least a 20% increase in ticket prices through the fuel component alone. Major carriers with fuel hedging programs such as Lufthansa and Ryanair have been partially shielded, but many smaller airlines face both price spikes and the risk of physical supply shortages. EasyJet reported that 84% of its fuel needs were hedged for the first half of 2026, but this dropped to 62% for the second half. IAG, the parent company of British Airways, was 62% hedged.

On March 31, 2026, US President Donald Trump publicly targeted the United Kingdom in a social media post, telling the UK and other countries that refused to participate in military strikes against Iran to secure the Strait of Hormuz themselves. Trump wrote that countries struggling to obtain jet fuel should either buy from the United States or go to the strait and take the fuel. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reinforced this message, suggesting that the Royal Navy should be prepared to act independently in the waterway.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer chaired a meeting of the COBRA crisis committee to assess the impact on households and the broader economy. He also hosted a roundtable with executives from major energy companies including Shell, BP, Centrica, and Equinor, alongside representatives from shipping firms Maersk and CMA and financial institutions such as HSBC, Lloyds, and Goldman Sachs. Starmer stated that reopening the Strait of Hormuz was essential for market stability but acknowledged that achieving this was not a simple task and that the UK would not be drawn into the wider war.

The British government maintained that petrol stations were well stocked nationally and that most UK fuel came from North America and Norway. However, energy specialists disputed this reassurance. Ellen Fraser, an energy specialist at Baringa consultancy, warned that supplies were becoming tight and that there was a real risk of the country running short, particularly in terms of jet fuel. Cornwall Insight forecast that household energy bills under the Ofgem price cap would rise to 1,929 GBP per year from July, an 18% increase from the April level.

Beyond jet fuel, the crisis is affecting the wider UK energy landscape. The average price of heating oil nearly doubled from 53.5 pence per litre in February to 104.1 pence in March, reaching the highest monthly level since official records began in 1989. UK drivers have paid an estimated 544 million GBP in extra fuel costs since the start of the Iran war.

Alternative supply options remain limited. The Dangote Refinery in Nigeria has exported small quantities of jet fuel to Europe, but its output averaged only about 70,000 barrels per day, far below the volumes needed to replace Gulf shipments. Saudi Arabia has attempted to redirect some oil exports through its Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, but this workaround cannot fully compensate for the loss of Persian Gulf shipping routes for refined jet fuel.

The crisis has exposed fundamental vulnerabilities in the UK energy supply chain and its dependence on imported fossil fuels from geopolitically unstable regions. Industry analysts warn that if the Hormuz blockade continues through the peak summer travel season, the impact on UK aviation and the broader economy could be severe and long-lasting.