Tungsten Prices Jump 310% in 2026 as Chinese Export Controls Tighten Supply

Tungsten has turned into one of the tightest critical mineral markets in the world, and the squeeze shows no sign of easing as of early September 2026. Research published on August 31, 2026 by Anthony Milewski of The Oregon Group, built on a new S&P Global market report, warns that the supply gap outside China could still reach 16,000 tonnes by 2030 even if every announced mining project is delivered on schedule. The warning matters because tungsten sits inside cutting tools, drill bits, armour, munitions, semiconductor wiring and fusion reactor components, and because there is no easy substitute for it.

The price move has been extreme. The ammonium paratungstate CIF benchmark, the main intermediate reference for the tungsten market, climbed from roughly US$83 per kilogram of WO3 in January 2026 to about US$340 per kilogram in July 2026, a rise of around 310 percent. Expressed in the metric tonne unit used by traders, that is a move from about US$830 to US$3,400 per mtu. Very few commodities have travelled that far in a single year.

The origin of the squeeze goes back to February 2025, when China introduced export licensing covering ammonium paratungstate and other tungsten products and technologies. Chinese shipments of controlled tungsten items fell by about 40 percent over 2025, and by March 2026 European prices had risen 557 percent from their earlier base. China produced 67,000 of the 85,000 tonnes of tungsten mined globally in 2025, close to 79 percent of world output, and controls roughly 85 percent of global refining capacity for ammonium paratungstate. Chinese mined production itself is slipping, with Project Blue estimating a 10 percent year on year decline to 61,000 tonnes in 2025 because of ageing mines, falling ore grades and tighter environmental enforcement on smaller operators. Chinese refineries also import around 30 percent of the concentrate they process, which means mine output located outside China is not the same thing as supply available to non-Chinese buyers.

Over the summer of 2026 the market split in two. Domestic Chinese prices corrected sharply after the spring peak, with tungsten concentrate in China falling roughly 50 percent from an all-time high of 1 million to 1.05 million yuan per tonne recorded on March 11, 2026. The Shanghai Metals Market domestic benchmark for ammonium paratungstate dropped about 25 percent between July and August 3, 2026. The export facing Western benchmark barely moved. Ammonium paratungstate CIF Rotterdam was assessed at US$3,075 per mtu on July 30, 2026, and on August 17, 2026 the European range was quoted at US$2,900 to US$3,275 per mtu, about 1.7 percent below its peak but still up roughly 236 percent since the start of the year. Western buyers are therefore paying scarcity prices while Chinese domestic consumers are not, and a single regional price signal can no longer be applied across the whole market.

The regulatory calendar is adding a second layer of pressure. The United States has not mined tungsten commercially since 2015 and remained more than 50 percent reliant on imports in 2025. From January 1, 2027, US defense procurement rules will generally prohibit the acquisition of tungsten metal powder, tungsten heavy alloy and covered components where the material was mined, refined, separated, melted or produced in China, Russia, North Korea or Iran, and the restriction reaches back through the chain to ore, feedstock and recycled material. Executive Order 14415, signed on July 20, 2026, instructs defense officials to stop issuing routine nonavailability waivers from that date unless a contractor files an approved mitigation plan documenting exhaustive efforts to secure compliant material. Major US mineral suppliers have already warned that domestic industry will not be ready in time.

Washington moved again in August 2026, this time on scrap. Restrictions that took effect on August 27, 2026 require US sellers of tungsten waste and scrap to direct their monthly sales to buyers located in the United States, with exceptions granted case by case by the Commerce Department, and the measure runs through August 27, 2027. Recycling covers roughly 35 percent of global tungsten demand and around 60 percent of ammonium paratungstate output outside China, so the rule quietly removes another pool of secondary units from international buyers who were already competing for non-Chinese material.

Higher prices have not fixed the shortage because price is no longer the binding constraint. S&P Global estimates that US$36 to US$48 per kilogram of WO3 would support more than 85 percent of accessible current and proposed supply in 2028, and that a structural cost near US$90 per kilogram would support every project in its modelled pipeline. At US$340 per kilogram the economics are comfortably cleared. What remains is time and capital, since projects still need financing, permits, construction, commissioning and customer qualification, and mine development timelines average about 16 years. Lenders test projects against conservative long-run assumptions rather than exceptional spot prices, which is why offtake contracts, government awards and critical mineral price support mechanisms are becoming central to Western project development.

Several projects are moving. Almonty began feeding stockpiled ore through the newly commissioned plant at Sangdong in South Korea during June 2026 and confirmed the start of saleable concentrate production on July 1, 2026, with the first phase sized at 640,000 tonnes of ore a year for roughly 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. Reporting on August 29, 2026 described the ramp as under way, and most of that first phase output is committed to a Pennsylvania based powder producer serving US industrial and defense customers. Tungsten West started phased commissioning at Hemerdon in the United Kingdom in July 2026 and targets full commissioning in the first quarter of 2027. EQ Resources approved an A$39 million expansion at Mt Carbine in Australia. Tau-Ken Samruk and Cove Capital are developing Northern Katpar and Upper Kairakty in Kazakhstan under a joint project valued at about US$1.1 billion, including plans for domestic refining. Fireweed Metals holds a US$15.8 million Department of Defense award for Mactung in Canada, alongside up to C$12.9 million of Canadian support for infrastructure planning. Guardian Metal Resources completed a prefeasibility study for Pilot Mountain in Nevada on June 30, 2026 and published the supporting technical report summary in late August 2026, backed by a US$6.2 million Defense Production Act award, with further drilling planned for the fourth quarter of 2026.

Together those eleven announced projects could add close to 20,000 tonnes of annual capacity by 2030, lifting accessible supply outside China to roughly 34,000 tonnes against primary demand of about 50,000 tonnes after recycling. That leaves the 16,000 tonne gap, and accessible mines outside China would meet only around 68 percent of projected demand. Refining does not close it either. Capacity outside China already stands near 42,000 tonnes, more than accessible ex-China mine output, and four announced projects could push it to about 70,000 tonnes by 2030, which mainly increases competition for the same concentrate and scrap.

Demand is not standing still. Cemented carbides account for 64 percent of consumption, and S&P Global projects first use demand rising from roughly 162,000 tonnes of WO3 in 2025 to 180,000 tonnes in 2030 and 202,000 tonnes by 2035. Project Blue expects military related consumption to grow about 12 percent during 2026 alone.