Seventy Percent of US Farmers Unable to Afford Required Fertilizer for 2026 Crop Year

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) released survey results on April 14, 2026 showing that approximately 70 percent of US farmers cannot afford to purchase all the fertilizer they need for the 2026 crop year. The nationwide survey collected responses from more than 5,700 producers across all 50 states and Puerto Rico between April 3 and April 11, 2026, capturing the financial pressure facing American agriculture during spring planting.

Regional disparities are significant. Southern farmers reported the most acute challenges, with 78 percent unable to secure their full fertilizer needs. The Northeast followed at 69 percent, the West at 66 percent, while Midwestern producers reported the lowest impact at 48 percent thanks to higher pre-booking rates. Pre-purchasing trends help explain the gap. Just 19 percent of Southern farmers had locked in fertilizer purchases ahead of planting, compared with 30 percent in the Northeast, 31 percent in the West and 67 percent in the Midwest.

By commodity, more than 80 percent of rice, cotton and peanut producers said they cannot afford full fertilizer applications, exposing the vulnerability of these production systems to input cost shocks. Over 70 percent of oats and wheat growers, 68 percent of soybean producers and 66 percent of corn growers reported the same constraint.

The crisis stems from the Iran conflict that escalated in late February 2026 and led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28. The waterway carries roughly one third of global fertilizer shipments and serves three of the top ten urea exporters worldwide. Since the closure, nitrogen fertilizer prices have climbed more than 30 percent, urea has jumped 47 percent, and farm diesel has increased 46 percent. Combined fuel and fertilizer costs are now 20 to 40 percent higher than at the start of the year.

The financial picture for US growers is grim. AFBF data shows that 94 percent of survey respondents say their financial situation has either worsened or stayed flat compared to last year, while only 6 percent reported improvement. Nearly six in ten farmers report worsening finances. Total US farm debt is projected to reach a record 624.7 billion dollars in 2026, and farm bankruptcies climbed to 315 filings in 2025. USDA projections show 2026 corn costs around 5 dollars per bushel to grow but is expected to sell for 4.20 dollars, while soybeans cost 12.27 dollars to produce but will fetch only 10.30 dollars.

Farmers are responding to the crisis in three main ways: reducing fertilizer application rates, switching corn acreage to soybeans which require less nitrogen, or absorbing the financial loss. AFBF economist Faith Parum warned that all three responses risk lower yields and reduced production potential for the 2026 crop year. In Mississippi, longtime corn grower Sledge Taylor told reporters in mid-April that he might not apply nitrogen fertilizer at all this season because of the cost.

A North Carolina farming family reported their nitrogen and fertilizer bill rose from 139 dollars per acre last year to 217 dollars per acre this year after the Strait of Hormuz closure pushed nitrogen prices up 100 dollars per ton in the first week alone. Oklahoma farmer Tommy Salisbury reduced milo acreage and shifted toward soybeans after a sudden 150 dollar per ton jump in urea prices.

A North Dakota State University analysis cited by AFBF projects that even if the ceasefire holds and the Strait reopens partially, urea prices could peak at 784 dollars per short ton in July 2026, with diammonium phosphate (DAP) reaching 866 dollars per ton in October. Damage to fertilizer infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region is expected to keep prices elevated through 2027 and into 2028.

USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data published on May 1, 2026 confirms that fertilizer prices remain at elevated levels, with average urea-related products such as MAP trading between 890 and 1,270 dollars per ton at distributor level. The May 2026 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report and the June 30 Acreage report will provide the first quantitative confirmation of how planting decisions have shifted.

Drought conditions are compounding the pressure. NOAA (Weather Service) data shows 61 percent of the continental United States is currently under moderate to exceptional drought, including 97 percent of the Southeast and two thirds of the western US. Industry leaders are calling for federal economic assistance. AFBF President Zippy Duvall described the situation as generational headwinds and stressed that domestic food production security is national security. The administration has announced plans to help ensure safe passage of fuel shipments through key shipping lanes, and farm groups are urging that fertilizer supplies be prioritized in similar protections. Without intervention or a sharp reversal in global markets, the spring 2026 fertilizer affordability crisis could translate into reduced yields, tighter food supplies and higher consumer prices through the 2026 to 2027 marketing year.