Russia Suspends Ammonium Nitrate Exports Until April 21, 2026

Russia's Agriculture Ministry announced the temporary suspension of all ammonium nitrate exports, effective immediately and lasting until April 21, 2026. The decision canceled all existing and pending export licenses for the fertilizer. Only deliveries made under existing intergovernmental agreements are exempt from the restriction.

The ministry stated that rising global demand for nitrogen fertilizers prompted the move, which aims to secure adequate domestic supply during the spring planting season. Russian agricultural producers depend heavily on ammonium nitrate during this critical period, and authorities determined that prioritizing the internal market was necessary to guarantee uninterrupted fieldwork across the country.

Russia holds a dominant position in the global ammonium nitrate market. In 2024, the country produced approximately 12 million metric tons of ammonium nitrate, representing close to 47% of global output. It was also the largest exporter, shipping around 2.7 million metric tons abroad, which accounted for roughly 37% of global export volume and 40% of export value. Key buyers of Russian ammonium nitrate include Brazil, India, Peru, Mongolia, Morocco, and Mozambique. Major Russian producers such as Uralchem, Acron, and EuroChem supply both the domestic agricultural sector and international markets.

The export suspension does not occur in isolation. Russia has maintained export caps on nitrogen and compound fertilizers since December 2021, with current restrictions running through May 31, 2026. The ammonium nitrate export quota for the December 2025 to May 2026 period was set at 2.6 million metric tons. The latest decision goes further by fully halting shipments rather than simply capping volumes.

This restriction compounds an already severe disruption in global fertilizer supply chains caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Since the onset of the military conflict involving Iran in late February 2026, the waterway has been effectively shut to commercial traffic. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical transit point for approximately 24% of global ammonia trade and nearly one-third of all seaborne fertilizer shipments. Persian Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, are major exporters of urea and ammonia, and their products can no longer reach international markets through the usual route.

The combined effect of the Hormuz closure and Russia's export halt is putting extraordinary pressure on nitrogen fertilizer markets. Urea prices surged approximately 28% within three weeks of the Hormuz disruption, rising from around $482 per metric ton in late February to over $700 per metric ton by mid-March 2026. Ammonia prices from the Middle East increased by roughly 24%, approaching $600 per metric ton. Fitch Ratings raised its 2026 ammonia and urea price forecasts by approximately 25%, warning that a prolonged disruption could push prices even higher.

Russia's domestic production capacity has also taken a hit from the ongoing war in Ukraine. On February 25, 2026, Ukrainian drones struck the Dorogobuzh nitrogen fertilizer plant in the Smolensk region, a facility owned by the Acron Group. The attack killed at least seven people and caused extensive damage to production, storage, and transportation infrastructure for ammonium nitrate. Satellite imagery confirmed the destruction of key facilities, including ammonium nitrate production units, a railway terminal, and finished goods warehouses. The Dorogobuzh plant accounted for approximately 11% of Russia's total ammonium nitrate output and is not expected to resume full operations before May 2026. Another major producer, KuybyshevAzot in the Samara region, has also faced repeated drone strikes in March 2026.

The timing of Russia's export suspension is particularly damaging for global agriculture. The Northern Hemisphere spring planting season is beginning, and farmers across North America, Europe, and parts of Asia rely on nitrogen fertilizers to prepare their fields. In the United States, the American Farm Bureau Federation has warned that corn and grain production faces severe input cost pressures, with diesel prices exceeding $5 per gallon and fertilizer costs climbing rapidly. Some American farmers may shift acreage from nitrogen-intensive corn to soybeans to reduce their fertilizer exposure.

In Europe, the crisis is compounded by rising natural gas prices, which account for roughly 80% of nitrogen fertilizer production costs. The European gas benchmark TTF rose from about 32 to nearly 52 euros per megawatt hour in the weeks following the Hormuz closure. In Germany, calcium ammonium nitrate prices increased by approximately 15% within weeks. European farmers, particularly smaller operations, are struggling to absorb these cost increases.

Import-dependent countries face the most acute risks. India, which sources approximately 80% of its ammonia from the Gulf region, has already seen domestic urea production fall by around 800,000 metric tons per month due to limited industrial gas supply. Brazil, the world's largest importer of fertilizers, could face shortfalls in phosphate supply. Australia expects current fertilizer stocks to run out by mid-April if alternative sources are not secured.

Analysts warn that the fertilizer supply shock will likely translate into higher food prices within six to nine months. The disruption affects not only nitrogen fertilizers but also sulfur, a byproduct of Gulf natural gas production that accounts for 44% of global supply and is essential for phosphate fertilizer manufacturing. The cascading nature of these shortages means that multiple types of fertilizers are affected simultaneously.

While Russia's export halt is officially temporary and limited to 31 days, market participants are watching closely for any extension. Russia has a pattern of imposing and then extending such restrictions, as seen in 2022 when a similar two-month ban was introduced during the energy price spike following the invasion of Ukraine. The current geopolitical environment, with ongoing military operations both in the Middle East and in Ukraine, makes the fertilizer market outlook highly uncertain heading into the critical planting months of April and May 2026.