Oil Tanker Rates Hit Record $800,000 a Day as US-Iran Tanker War Chokes Gulf Exports

Freight rates for crude oil tankers have climbed to all-time highs in September 2026 as the renewed tanker war between the United States and Iran disrupts oil exports from the Persian Gulf. On the Baltic Exchange benchmark route from the Middle East Gulf to China, daily earnings for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) have passed $800,000, a level the market had never seen before. For cargoes from the US Gulf Coast to Asia, charterers have been offered supertankers at a record lump-sum fee of $29.5 million per voyage, close to $15 per barrel before any war-risk premium or delay costs are added.

Flows through the strait of Hormuz gradually improved during a month of relative calm in August, before fighting resumed on August 30. Since then, the confrontation has moved decisively to sea. Washington adopted a new policy of striking Iranian tankers each time Iranian forces target US warships. US forces hit two Iranian government tankers on September 1, then disabled or destroyed three more on September 5 after ballistic missiles were launched toward a US aircraft carrier and a destroyer. Late on September 8, US Central Command sank five Iranian crude carriers, four of them in the Gulf of Oman and one near Kharg Island, after ordering the crews to abandon ship. The United States says it has hit 10 Iranian tankers in a single week.

Iran answered on September 9 with what became the largest wave of attacks on merchant shipping since the start of the war. The Revolutionary Guards said they struck 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, including two US ships and eight tankers, and the UK Maritime Trade Operations center reported several merchant ships hit by disabling fire in the northern Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. One seafarer was killed and another went missing aboard the products tanker Hercules Star while it was anchored off Dubai. In Iraqi waters, the tanker New Andros, which held around 2 million barrels of fuel oil in storage, caught fire after a drone strike, and an LNG carrier was reportedly damaged in the Emirati port of Khor Fakkan. Iran also fired 20 ballistic missiles at a base used by US forces in Jordan and announced plans for an enlarged restricted maritime zone reaching as far as Chabahar, deep into the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

The impact on oil flows has been severe, although estimates diverge widely. Rystad Energy said volumes crossing Hormuz fell back to as little as 2 million barrels per day after the fighting resumed, compared with 8 to 9 million barrels per day in the week before August 30. Speaking at the APPEC conference in Singapore this week, Vitol chief executive Russell Hardy put current flows at around 10 million barrels per day, while admitting the figure is hard to pin down. At the end of August, Goldman Sachs estimated total Gulf exports at 15 to 16 million barrels per day by including tankers crossing with their transponders switched off, a level still 7 to 8 million barrels per day below pre-war volumes. Refined products are even more constrained, with outbound product flows estimated at roughly 35% of pre-war levels.

The Gulf of Oman has become the busiest tanker market in the world. Under a shuttle system, a limited group of risk-tolerant owners loads crude inside the Persian Gulf, runs through the strait and transfers the cargo by ship-to-ship operations to larger vessels waiting outside. The Baltic Exchange has launched a dedicated Gulf of Oman to East Asia index, which has jumped 85% since its launch to almost $386,000 a day this week. On September 8, its Oman to China VLCC assessment stood at about $358,000 a day, up 144% in one month, and one supertanker was placed on subjects for a Gulf of Oman to China voyage at nearly $410,000 a day. The $800,000 figure on the Middle East Gulf to China route is largely a theoretical assessment, since very few cargoes now load directly inside the strait, but it reflects the extreme risk premium attached to the waterway. Shipbroker Fearnleys noted in its report for the week ended September 9 that the list of available VLCCs is so tight that rates above Worldscale 400 on Fujairah to East runs would not come as a surprise.

A second chokepoint is adding to the strain. Since the Houthis declared a maritime blockade on Saudi shipping in July, Saudi Aramco has shifted a large share of its exports away from the southern Red Sea. Crude is shuttled north from Yanbu to Ain Sukhna in Egypt, pumped through the SUMED pipeline and reloaded at Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean. Kpler data showed exports from Sidi Kerir more than doubled to about 2.3 million barrels per day in August, mostly Saudi crude. For Asian buyers, the voyage from Sidi Kerir continues around the Cape of Good Hope and adds more than three weeks compared with the direct route through the Gulf of Aden. Fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis escalated again on September 8, when Houthi strikes on four Saudi cities set oil installations on fire and wounded 73 people. At the same time, Asian refiners are buying more US and West African crude, which requires much longer voyages and absorbs even more tanker capacity.

These longer routes keep ships tied up for weeks and have removed a large share of the effective fleet from the market. Traders at APPEC described the crude itself as available, with transport now the main constraint. An executive at Indian refiner HPCL-Mittal Energy said shipping and transit, rather than supply, are holding back deliveries, and Equinor's head of crude and products trading pointed to several bottlenecks acting at the same time. Freight is now dictating trade decisions, with some traders saying cargoes simply cannot move when shipping costs make the arbitrage unworkable.

The freight spike is feeding directly into energy prices. Brent crude futures rose above $100 a barrel on September 9 for the first time since July and are up more than 40% since the war began. The average US retail diesel price reached a record of more than $5.94 per gallon the same day, and gasoline is at its most expensive level ever for this time of year. Higher transport costs are expected to filter through to fuels, freight services and consumer goods, adding to inflation pressure for central banks.

The outlook points to a lasting shift rather than a short spike. Kpler expects VLCC earnings to remain above $100,000 a day into 2027, more than double historic levels that rarely exceeded $45,000. In a note published on September 10, Morgan Stanley said two-year charter rates for VLCCs could rise by another 20% to 30%. Supertanker values are also reaching new records, with one VLCC reportedly sold for around $200 million. Gulf producers are responding by building their own fleets, with ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) extending a $2.7 billion ship buying program and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation also acquiring more tankers. With no ceasefire in place and Iran threatening to escalate further if its tankers are attacked again, tanker rates are likely to stay under strong upward pressure in the coming weeks.