Kremlin Stops Kazakh Oil Deliveries to Germany, Targeting Schwedt Refinery Supply

Russia has confirmed that it will stop the transit of Kazakh crude oil to Germany through the northern branch of the Druzhba pipeline starting May 1, 2026. The decision strips the PCK Schwedt refinery in Brandenburg of roughly 17 percent of its annual crude intake and creates immediate fuel supply risks for the Berlin and Brandenburg region, where the plant covers around 90 percent of the local demand for gasoline, diesel, kerosene and heating oil.

The announcement was first reported on April 21, 2026 by Reuters, citing three industry sources familiar with the adjusted Russian export schedule sent to both Kazakh and German authorities. On April 22, 2026, Kazakh Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov confirmed the information, stating that the Atyrau to Samara transit toward Druzhba and onward to Schwedt would be reduced to zero for the month of May. Later the same day, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak officially confirmed the suspension at the Kremlin, telling reporters that Kazakh volumes previously shipped through Druzhba would be redirected to other logistics routes because of current technical capacities. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the move as a technical moment and said Kazakh interests would be respected.

Rosneft Deutschland, the German subsidiary of Russia's state oil company Rosneft, formally notified German regulators that the Russian Energy Ministry had instructed the suspension of all Kazakh crude transit through Druzhba bound for the PCK refinery. Berlin confirmed that Moscow had not communicated the decision through diplomatic channels, with the information reaching the German government through the operating company rather than from the Russian state directly.

The German Economy Ministry stated that the halt does not jeopardize national supply security for petroleum products, even if PCK Schwedt has to operate at reduced utilization. Government spokesman Stefan Kornelius said the stoppage will not significantly restrict refinery operations, while acknowledging that authorities are closely monitoring kerosene availability given that the plant supplies Berlin Brandenburg airport. Rosneft Deutschland said it is assessing the implications of the pipeline closure and using all available options to secure supply, including seaborne deliveries through the Baltic port of Rostock and the Polish port of Gdansk.

In 2025, Kazakhstan shipped 2.146 million metric tons of oil to Germany through Druzhba, and planned deliveries for 2026 were set at around 2.5 million tons before the disruption. During the first quarter of 2026 alone, 730 thousand tons had already transited to Schwedt. Daily flows averaged roughly 43,000 barrels per day in 2025. The PCK Schwedt refinery, one of the largest in Germany, processes up to 12 million tons of crude per year and already operates at reduced utilization of 50 to 70 percent. Kazakh oil has represented close to 17 percent of the plant's crude intake since deliveries resumed in December 2023 to replace Russian barrels cut off under EU sanctions. Nine out of ten vehicles in Berlin and Brandenburg rely on fuel refined at Schwedt.

Why is Russia cutting the pipeline?

Moscow officially cites technical capacities, but energy analysts, German politicians and Kazakh commentators widely view the move as political retaliation. Several drivers converge.

First, Berlin placed Rosneft's German assets under trusteeship in September 2022 after the invasion of Ukraine, effectively removing them from Rosneft's control, and the German government has been searching for a buyer to complete the separation. The Kremlin has publicly signaled that Berlin should answer for what Russian officials describe as the expropriation of the refinery.

Second, the suspension follows the restart on April 22, 2026 of the southern branch of Druzhba through Ukraine, which had been offline since a Russian strike in late January 2026. The restart allowed Hungary and Slovakia to lift their veto on a 90 billion euro EU loan to Ukraine, setting what analysts call a pipe in exchange for a loan precedent that Moscow has registered.

Third, Germany remains the largest financial backer of Ukraine within the European Union, and cutting a remaining crude flow serves as direct pressure on Berlin's energy posture.

Fourth, the global context matters: the ongoing war in Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have tightened crude markets, maximizing the leverage of any additional European supply cut. Some analysts also point to potential side benefits for alternative corridors such as the Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan route, and to Ukrainian interests in higher world oil prices.

For Kazakhstan, the loss represents less than 3 percent of total crude exports and is a significant but manageable nuisance given total 2025 production of around 80 million tons. Astana will need to redirect up to 2.5 million tons per year toward alternative outlets, likely via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and seaborne routes, although CPC itself has faced repeated disruptions. For Germany, replacing 2 to 2.5 million tons per year through Rostock and Gdansk is technically possible but operationally strained. Industry experts note that even in stable years, the two ports struggled to deliver the required volumes to Schwedt, and current market tightness linked to the Iran conflict complicates sourcing. Brandenburg's former finance minister Christian Görke described the situation as serious and even dramatic for the refinery and for energy supply across large parts of Germany.

The northern Druzhba flow to Germany is now set to fall to zero from May 1, 2026, with no timeline provided by Russian officials for any resumption.