Houthis Target Saudi Oil at Bab al-Mandeb as Hormuz Stays Shut

On July 20, 2026, Yemen's Houthi movement declared an immediate naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, barring vessels bound for Saudi ports from safe passage through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The group's military spokesman framed the maritime embargo as an 'eye for an eye' response to what the Houthis describe as a Saudi siege of Yemeni ports and recent airstrikes, including a strike on Sanaa International Airport.

The Bab al-Mandeb links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean and narrows to about 29 kilometres at its tightest point. The chokepoint has become far more important for Saudi Arabia since the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut by the war between the United States and Iran, leaving the Red Sea as the kingdom's main outlet for crude heading to Asia.

Shipping data show the threat is already reshaping traffic. On July 21, two tankers loaded with Saudi crude at the western port of Yanbu, the Rodos and the Xin Long Yang, reversed course after initially sailing toward the strait, together carrying about 2.8 million barrels. By July 22, more oil tankers bound for India and China had turned back toward the Suez Canal, and a vehicle carrier operated by Cosco changed course in the Gulf of Aden after a warning from Houthi forces. Analysts at Kpler reported that a dozen vessels loaded at Yanbu remained inside the Red Sea, while two others switched off their tracking transponders near the strait.

The volumes at stake are large. Yanbu exported roughly 4.1 million barrels per day in June, absorbing about 64 percent of the Saudi crude that would normally have left through Hormuz. Industry estimates place around 6 million barrels of crude per day heading to Asia at risk if the passage becomes unusable, with two-thirds of that coming from Saudi Arabia and the remainder from Russia. India, which routes more than half of its oil imports through the strait, is seen as the most exposed, followed by other Asian buyers such as Pakistan, South Korea, Japan and China.

Rerouting offers only partial relief. Sending cargoes from Yanbu through the Suez Canal and around the Cape of Good Hope would stretch a voyage to South Korea from about 24 days to roughly 54 days, while raising freight, fuel and insurance costs. Fully laden supertankers cannot transit the Suez Canal, so operators would need to lighten cargoes through Egypt's SUMED pipeline or shift to smaller vessels, further limiting how much oil can move.

Oil markets have so far reacted with caution rather than alarm. Brent crude rose modestly after the announcement to trade near 88 to 90 dollars per barrel, held in check by high global inventories and hopes of renewed diplomacy. Analysts warn that a sustained blockade, combined with the reduced flow through Hormuz, could push prices sharply higher and tighten fuel supplies well beyond Asia.

Saudi Arabia has rejected the Houthi account, calling allegations of a Saudi blockade of Yemeni ports disinformation and accusing the group of trying to distract from domestic difficulties. The United Nations has urged immediate de-escalation and warned of a growing risk of wider regional conflict.

As of July 22, 2026, the blockade remains active and its full impact is still unfolding. Whether it hardens into a prolonged disruption or eases through diplomacy will determine the scale of the damage to Saudi oil exports and to the global shipping and energy markets that rely on this corridor.