Goldman Sachs Lowers 2026 Global PC Sales Forecast on Memory Shortage

Goldman Sachs has cut its global PC shipment forecast for 2026, warning that a deepening memory shortage is eroding demand and squeezing manufacturers. In a research note led by Allen Chang, head of Greater China technology research, the bank now expects global PC shipments to fall 14 percent year over year in 2026 to about 255 million units, followed by a 5 percent decline in 2027 and flat growth in 2028. That is a sharp downgrade from its earlier view of a 10 percent drop in 2026 and 3 percent growth in each of the two following years.

The root cause sits upstream in the memory market. Surging demand from AI data centers for high bandwidth memory has drained the supply of DRAM and NAND flash, the same components that personal computers depend on. Goldman describes the situation as the worst memory shortage in 15 years, with shortfalls across DRAM, NAND and HBM in 2026 and even tighter conditions expected in 2027. Because new memory fabs take four to five years to build, supply cannot ramp quickly, and PC makers are forced to compete with data center operators for scarce chips. Contract prices reflect the squeeze, and Gartner projects combined memory prices to climb by roughly 130 percent by the end of 2026.

The disruption built up gradually. Through the second half of 2025, AI infrastructure spending began absorbing memory capacity, and prices started climbing in the fourth quarter. Early 2026 brought a brief reprieve as buyers rushed to purchase ahead of price hikes and the end of Windows 10 support, but that demand was largely borrowed from later in the year. In the second quarter of 2026, global PC shipments fell 4.9 percent to 68.2 million units, ending nine straight quarters of growth. IDC now expects the fourth quarter of 2026 to be far weaker, with shipments dropping around 20 percent year over year.

The consequences are twofold.

Unit volumes are falling as higher prices push buyers to delay upgrades and keep existing machines for longer.

At the same time, average selling prices are rising quickly, so total market revenue is holding up even as shipments shrink.

IDC estimates the PC market will still grow about 1.6 percent in value to 274 billion dollars in 2026 despite the volume decline, while Gartner expects average PC prices to rise around 17 percent. Entry level laptops and desktops priced below 500 dollars are the hardest hit, because thin margins leave little room to absorb costlier memory, and some vendors have started shipping prebuilt systems without RAM. Larger vendors such as Lenovo, HP and Dell are better placed to secure supply, while smaller brands face steeper contractions.

For now the shortage shows no sign of easing. IDC and Goldman Sachs both expect tight conditions to persist through 2027, with only modest relief beginning in 2028 and no return to 2025 price levels. Analysts increasingly point to a new normal of structurally higher prices and longer device lifecycles. AI PCs remain the main bright spot, with their share of shipments expected to keep rising through 2028, but the overall market stays under pressure. The situation remains active and continues to evolve as memory prices and AI driven demand develop.