Global Copper Shortage Set to Begin in 2028 as New Mines Fail to Keep Pace

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) published its Transition Metals Outlook 2026 in London on October 20, 2026, and the headline message is mixed for the energy transition. Fears of widespread shortages of battery and grid metals have faded considerably, but copper now stands alone as the metal most likely to run short. According to the research firm, the copper industry will need about $332 billion of investment in new mines to avoid a structural supply gap that threatens to slow electrification worldwide.

The figures are stark. BloombergNEF expects mined copper supply to start falling behind demand in 2028. The shortfall is projected to reach around 3 million metric tons by 2035, equal to roughly 8% of consumption, before widening to 20 million metric tons by 2050. At that point, the gap would represent about 44% of projected global demand, meaning that almost half of the copper the world needs could be missing if no new capacity is built.

Demand is the main driver of this imbalance. Global copper consumption is forecast to grow by 61% between 2026 and 2050, reaching nearly 46 million metric tons. Demand linked to electrification is expected to climb 89% to 23.3 million tons, which would account for more than half of total use by mid-century. Electrified transport is the fastest-growing segment, with copper needs in this area projected to jump 244% to 11.4 million tons, or about a quarter of total demand in 2050. Electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, lithium-ion batteries, power grids and data centers all rely heavily on copper wiring and components.

Copper is now the clear outlier among the materials tracked by BloombergNEF. The firm believes that nine of the 10 metals in its outlook, namely lithium, graphite, cobalt, aluminium, nickel, manganese, steel, platinum and palladium, will have enough long-term production capacity through 2050, provided that miners keep developing projects and replacing depleted reserves. This is a marked improvement compared with the previous edition, released in December 2025, which identified three materials at risk of deficit. That earlier outlook already flagged copper as the most exposed metal, with a projected shortfall of 19 million metric tons by 2050, so the long-term gap has widened slightly in the new assessment.

The core of the problem lies in how slowly new copper supply can be brought online. BloombergNEF estimates that a new copper mine takes an average of 17 years to reach production, because of long exploration phases, lengthy permitting procedures, heavy capital requirements and technical complexity. Existing operations are also facing declining ore grades, which make each tonne of copper harder and more expensive to extract, while spending on exploration has not been sufficient to identify enough new deposits. As a result, even if the full $332 billion were committed today, the deficit would likely persist until at least 2043, since the first shortages are expected well before a mine started now could produce any metal.

The long-term warning contrasts with the near-term picture for refined copper. The International Copper Study Group expects the refined market to post a surplus of about 104,000 tons in 2026, rising to around 368,000 tons in 2027. The two forecasts measure different things. The study group compares refined metal output with consumption, while BloombergNEF examines whether mining capacity can keep up with demand over the coming decades. Stronger smelter output can keep refined copper available for a while, but it cannot create new mined supply.

Recent events in the main producing regions illustrate how fragile mine supply already is. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex near Kolwezi, one of the largest and highest-grade copper operations in the world, is still recovering from seismic events in May 2025 that flooded the eastern part of the Kakula mine. The complex, operated by a joint venture between Ivanhoe Mines and Zijin Mining with a 20% stake held by the Congolese government, originally targeted 380,000 to 420,000 tons of copper for 2026. That guidance was cut to 290,000 to 330,000 tons and then narrowed in August 2026 to 290,000 to 310,000 tons, after the site produced about 135,700 tons in the first half of the year and lost several days of mining to industrial action. The operator now expects production to return above 500,000 tons per year from 2028 onwards.

Chile, the world's largest producer, is facing its own difficulties. The country produced 3.25 million tons of copper between January and August 2026, a drop of 7.7% compared with the same period last year, with lower output recorded at major mines such as Escondida, El Teniente, Centinela and Collahuasi. Severe weather in the north, maintenance work and labor disputes have all weighed on production. Workers at the Centinela mine went on strike on October 7, while BHP reached a last-minute agreement with the supervisors' union at Escondida on October 14, avoiding a stoppage at the world's largest copper mine.

These tensions are reflected in prices. Copper on the London Metal Exchange traded above $14,000 per tonne in mid-October 2026, close to record levels and well above prices seen a year earlier. BloombergNEF warns that a lasting supply gap could push prices even higher, force manufacturers to switch to alternative materials such as aluminium where possible, and delay the rollout of electric vehicles, batteries and grid infrastructure.

The outlook also highlights a second vulnerability located further down the supply chain. Eight of the 10 materials studied have more than half of their global refining capacity concentrated in a single country, and China holds that dominant position in seven of them. This leaves manufacturers exposed to export restrictions, trade disputes and shifts in industrial policy. Opening new mines outside China would not be enough on its own, since independent processing networks also require additional capital, infrastructure and industrial know-how.

As of October 21, 2026, the copper supply gap remains a forecast rather than a physical shortage, but the window to act is narrowing. With the deficit expected to begin in 2028 and new mines needing close to two decades to come online, the ability of the industry to secure financing, permits and construction capacity in the next few years will largely determine how severely copper constraints weigh on electrification in the 2030s and beyond. Greater scrap collection and recycling are expected to play a growing role in balancing the market, but they are unlikely to close a gap of this size without a major wave of new mine investment.