40% of Russian Oil Export Capacity Shut Down as Ukrainian Drone Campaign Reaches Historic Scale

Since the beginning of 2026, Ukraine has dramatically escalated its long-range drone campaign against Russian oil and gas infrastructure, targeting refineries, export terminals, oil depots and pipeline hubs across the country. The campaign represents a calculated strategy to undermine Moscow's ability to finance its ongoing war by degrading the energy sector that generates roughly 30% of Russia's federal budget revenue.

The strikes began on the very first night of 2026, when Ukrainian drones hit the Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai. Throughout January, at least 12 attacks targeted critical oil sector infrastructure, including refineries, storage sites and pipelines. On January 10, drones struck the Zhutovskaya oil depot in Volgograd Oblast, a facility directly supplying fuel to Russian frontline forces. Later that month, coordinated strikes hit the Ryazan Oil Refinery, one of Russia's top four processing plants with a capacity of nearly 19 million tons per year. The Ryazan facility was forced to halt petroleum product loading and eventually shut down its entire production cycle. On January 29, drones struck Lukoil's Norsi refinery in Kstovo near Nizhny Novgorod, approximately 800 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, causing a large-scale fire.

In February, the pace intensified further. Drones hit energy facilities in Astrakhan and Volgograd oblasts on February 3, followed by a fire at an oil plant in Krasnodar Krai two days later. The Slavyansk-on-Kuban refinery in southern Russia was struck on February 13-14 for the third time. A Ukrainian drone strike also targeted the port of Taman in the Krasnodar region on February 16, damaging an oil storage tank, a warehouse and port terminals. Throughout January and February combined, Ukrainian forces carried out more than 40 strikes against oil and gas infrastructure and military targets inside Russia, hitting 13 refineries, oil depots and other energy facilities according to Ukraine's Ministry of Defense.

March 2026 marked a significant escalation as Ukraine began targeting Russia's most strategically important Baltic Sea export terminals. On March 2, a large-scale attack struck the Sheskharis oil terminal and the Novorossiysk naval base in Krasnodar. The Sheskharis terminal, which handles approximately 5% of global oil throughput, caught fire and a state of emergency was declared. Air traffic across southern Russia was disrupted, with dozens of flights delayed or cancelled at airports in Krasnodar, Sochi and Gelendzhik. On March 17, coordinated overnight attacks struck multiple refineries in Samara, Ryazan and Kstovo simultaneously.

The most consequential strikes came in late March, when Ukraine targeted Russia's two largest Baltic Sea oil export hubs. On March 22-23, drones hit the port of Primorsk in the Leningrad region, Russia's largest oil export terminal on the Baltic Sea. Primorsk serves as the endpoint of the Baltic Pipeline System, handling approximately 60 million tons of oil annually with a loading capacity of about 1 million barrels per day. Fires erupted in fuel storage tanks and oil loading infrastructure was damaged. On March 25, Ukraine launched its largest overnight drone attack of 2026, striking the port of Ust-Luga, another major Baltic export hub handling around 700,000 barrels of oil exports daily. Multiple oil storage tanks caught fire at the Novatek gas-condensate facility within the port complex. Russian authorities reported intercepting 389 Ukrainian drones across 13 regions in what was the most intense single overnight attack since the full-scale invasion began. Both Primorsk and Ust-Luga suspended oil export operations following the strikes, creating significant disruptions to Russia's crude shipping logistics.

A critical additional risk factor emerged during the March strikes on Baltic targets. Ukrainian drones traversing the airspace near the Baltic states have repeatedly crashed in NATO member countries. On March 23, a drone involved in the Primorsk attack crashed in Lithuania near the Belarus border. On March 25, during the Ust-Luga operation, a Ukrainian drone struck the chimney of the Auvere power plant in northeastern Estonia at approximately 03:43 local time, while another drone crashed and exploded in Latvia's Kraslava district. Estonian authorities confirmed the drone entered from Russian airspace, and Latvia's president confirmed it was Ukrainian. These incidents across all three Baltic states within 48 hours intensified NATO discussions about building a drone defense wall along Europe's eastern border.

The economic impact of this campaign extends well beyond Russia's borders. Russia's oil export revenues are concentrated among a narrow group of buyers. China purchases approximately 48% of Russia's crude exports, followed by India at 37%, Turkey at 6% and the European Union at 6%. For oil products, Turkey is the largest buyer at 27%, followed by China at 13% and Brazil at 11%. The EU remains the largest customer for Russian LNG at 49% of total exports and also buys significant volumes of pipeline gas. In February 2026, China's seaborne crude imports from Russia doubled year-on-year, while India's Russian crude imports dropped 19% amid US sanctions pressure on Rosneft and Lukoil. Turkey emerged as the second-largest buyer of Russian hydrocarbons in February 2026, overtaking India. Disruptions at the Baltic export terminals are particularly significant because ports like Primorsk and Ust-Luga serve as primary loading points for Urals crude shipped to global markets, including via Russia's shadow fleet of approximately 1,000 vessels used to circumvent Western sanctions.

As of March 25, 2026, at least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity, equivalent to approximately 2 million barrels per day, has been shut down according to Reuters calculations. This is the most severe oil supply disruption in Russia's modern history. The shutdown results from the combined effect of Ukrainian drone strikes on all three major western export ports (Novorossiysk, Primorsk and Ust-Luga), damage to the Druzhba pipeline, and the seizure of shadow fleet tankers in European waters disrupting 300,000 barrels per day of Arctic oil exports from Murmansk. On the refining side, 21 of Russia's 38 major refineries have been hit since 2025, with up to 38% of primary refining capacity forced offline at peak disruption periods. Budget losses from strikes on oil infrastructure are estimated at approximately 100 billion US dollars.

Russia has framed these attacks as terrorist operations targeting civilian infrastructure. After its largest winter strike on February 3, Russia's Defense Ministry stated the retaliatory bombardment of Ukrainian energy systems was carried out in response to what it called terrorist attacks by Kyiv on civilian objects. President Putin had previously called Ukrainian attacks on oil tankers piracy. Russia escalated its own aerial campaign against Ukraine's energy grid, firing 288 missiles in February 2026 alone, a 113% increase over January and the highest monthly total since Kyiv began publishing data in early 2023. Over the three winter months, Russia launched more than 14,670 guided aerial bombs, 738 missiles and nearly 19,000 attack drones, primarily targeting Ukraine's power generation and heating infrastructure. Ukraine's available generating capacity fell from 33.7 GW at the start of the full-scale invasion to approximately 14 GW by January 2026. A February 2026 Levada survey found 57% of Russians considered strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure rather justified, framing them as retaliatory or necessary to weaken Ukraine's economy and military.

The operational suspension of both Primorsk and Ust-Luga ports in March 2026 coincides with extreme volatility in global energy markets caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz following US-Israeli operations against Iran. The combination of disrupted Russian Baltic exports and restricted Persian Gulf shipping lanes creates compounding pressure on global oil supply chains and further uncertainty for energy-dependent economies worldwide.